George R.R. Martin mentioned House of the Dragon seasons 3 and 4 making changes to his book, Fire & Blood, that would result in a “toxic” butterfly effect on the narrative, but what was he referring to? Martin wrote a now-deleted post on his Not A Blog page detailing several issues he had with HBO’s adaptation of his House Targaryen history book, centered around changes to Blood and Cheese and, specifically, the omission of Maelor, the third child of King Aegon II Targaryen and Queen Helaena Targaryen.
Martin’s complaints not only talked about the lack of impact making Blood and Cheese killing Prince Jaehaerys Targaryen disappointing to book readers, but also the knock-on effect it would have. This includes Maelor’s own death, and subsequently Helaena’s suicide that comes after it. However, he also teased even bigger changes, writing:
“And there are larger and more toxic butterflies to come, if HOUSE OF THE DRAGON goes ahead with some of the changes being contemplated for seasons 3 and 4…”
Of course, House of the Dragon season 3 is a long way off, with it not expected to be released until sometime in 2026. The changes Martin is referring to may or may not happen, but based on the direction of the show and how it’s already started altering things, it’s possible to make a few guesses at what he’s referring to, outside Maelor and Helaena.
GRRM’s Comments Could Be About House Of The Dragon Cutting Nettles
The Dragonseed Has Seemingly Been Cut From The Show
One significant change that’s all but confirmed now is House of the Dragon cutting Nettles, a dragonseed from Fire & Blood. In the book, she’s the one who claims the wild dragon Sheepstealer during the sowing of the dragonseeds. However, she never appeared at that point of the show’s story, and House of the Dragon season 2’s ending saw Rhaena Targaryen encounter what appears to be Sheepstealer, strongly suggesting those characters will be merged going forward.
Since this alteration seems more or less guaranteed – it would be quite a swerve to introduce Nettles in season 3, and make far less sense than doing so alongside the other dragonseeds – then it could well be one of the changes Martin was referring to. Indeed, in a previous post on Not A Blog, he made a reference that could be seen as taking issue with the show’s Sheepstealer story, writing:
“You won’t find dragons hunting the riverlands or the Reach or the Vale…”
However, that’s exactly what the show revealed shortly after he revealed that. Combining that with comments about changes, Nettles would add up as one of the author’s problems. Nettles is an important character in the book, because she’s the only person to claim a wild dragon, and does so with her own cunning and fearless nature. Her lineage is also unconfirmed, meaning she challenges the idea of whether Valyrian blood really is needed to bond with and ride a dragon.
Nettles’ importance grows from there. She not only fights in battles for Team Black, but forms a close bond with Daemon Targaryen. Some sources describe this as being like father and daughter, others claim it is romantic, but the bond is there regardless. Later, this inspires a great feeling of jealousy in Rhaenyra Targaryen, and contributes to some of her own actions as she takes a darker turn. It also changes Rhaena’s story, as she does eventually get her own dragon, Morning, which is an important part of her arc.
All of that would fit with the kind of butterfly effect Martin is writing about, where one change that, in isolation, may not be too significant, then leads to bigger issues later on. However, it’s not the only possibility.
House Of The Dragon Season 3 & 4’s Changes Could Be About Rhaenyra
Rhaenyra Is Different In House Of The Dragon Compared To Fire & Blood
House of the Dragon season 3 is also set up to make changes to how Rhaenyra takes King’s Landing, after Alicent Hightower’s decision to let her take control of the city, ready to open up the gates and even allow Aegon to be killed (though, unbeknownst to them, he has escaped with Larys Strong). This, and what follows, may also be part of what Martin is referring to.
The author specifically refers to Rhaenyra as being a more cruel character in the book, talking about how she is not “sweet and gentle” like Helaena, and how the latter’s death helps lead to riots in the city. That could still happen in the show, but Emma D’Arcy’s Rhaenyra is a far more sympathetic version of the character than the one in the book. Though there are signs of that shifting somewhat, as she’s more ready to take what she wants by force, it may still try to keep her as the hero, which would have an impact on her future.
The smallfolk need to turn on Rhaenyra. She needs to be driven out of King’s Landing, and lose everything. When Rhaenyra dies in House of the Dragon, she should have almost nothing left. If the show tries to keep her as the ultimate hero and the one on the side of “good,” it’s going to be harder to get to that point, which would be a massive change.
It could even have Alicent leave King’s Landing with Rhaenyra later on, once again changing the latter’s future.
Alternatively, it could be referring to her relationship with Alicent. There’s little written about Alicent after Rhaenyra takes King’s Landing, but the pair certainly aren’t on good terms. The show has made their relationship the heart of the story, and will want to explore that further if both are in King’s Landing. Whether that’s a romance between Rhaenyra and Alicent, as has been theorized, or just further keeping both characters on the right side, it could have a trickle-down effect. It could even have Alicent leave King’s Landing with Rhaenyra later on, once again changing the latter’s future.
House Of The Dragon Season 3 May Change Aegon The Younger’s Story
Is House Of The Dragon Changing The Battle Of The Gullet?
House of the Dragon season 2 set up the Battle of the Gullet, which will see the Velaryon fleet face off against the Triarchy, but there could be some substantial changes to the battle’s prelude. Before the fighting begins, the Triarchy encounters the Gay Abandon, the ship that’s taking Princes Aegon and Viserys Targaryen (the youngest children of Rhaenyra) to Pentos. In the book, Viserys is captured, while Aegon escapes on his dragon, Stormcloud, flying back to Dragonstone to warn of what happens, though the dragon dies from the effort.
In the show, the same setup exists – Aegon and Viserys are sent off on the ship – but Stormcloud, based on one brief appearance, is absolutely tiny, and looks too small to be flown. Unless it rapidly sizes up the dragon, it’s going to be hard to begin the battle in the exact same way. That could mean Aegon and Viserys both end up in Essos, which would have major ramifications for the future of the Dance of the Dragons.
Aegon stays with Rhaenyra for most of the civil war, and she particularly keeps him close once her other children have all died (it’s believed that Viserys has been killed at this point, though it’s not the case). Thus, Aegon is there when Rhaenyra is killed. It’s a moment that not only gives him a deep-rooted trauma, but also a hatred of dragons, and the creatures eventually die out under his rule once he takes the Iron Throne. If House of the Dragon messes with that, it could be radically changing House Targaryen’s history.
I think it’s also possible, if it does go down that route, that Alicent will be there when Rhaenyra dies. The show has gone to such lengths to keep them together, that having her be there at the end feels like the kind of thing they could do to try and extend their story to the very last moment, especially as Alicent doesn’t have much of a role otherwise. It’s a lot of ifs to get to that stage, and requires multiple major changes, but it wouldn’t entirely shock me to see it.
What Else Could GRRM’s Teased House Of The Dragon Changes Be About?
There Are Lots Of Possibilities
Beyond the above, there are an almost endless amount of options for what Martin could have been referring to. There are dozens of characters and storylines in play, and they’re all connected in some way. It has to be someone or something pretty significant, but outside the above, that could be changing character deaths, killing people who are still alive in the book, or having people who die stay alive.
Alternatively, it could be referring to events being cut down. Based on the book’s story, there are a huge amount of battles to come, and House of the Dragon probably can’t show them all. It might be cutting some of those down, which could alter fates, allegiances, and storylines. The show is already different, and those gaps could widen further, but it remains to be seen just how far the butterfly effect goes.